Coverart for item
The Resource Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning, Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio

Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning, Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio

Label
Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning
Title
Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty
Title remainder
an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning
Statement of responsibility
Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio
Title variation
Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning
Creator
Contributor
Publisher
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
"Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risks, a new approach to planning is needed to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures and thus are better able to manage surprise. This report describes how robust decision making (RDM) may help address this need. RDM, a quantitative decision support methodology for informing decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, has been applied to many policy areas in the last decade. This document provides a proof of concept application of RDM to defense planning, focusing on the air-launched munitions mix challenge. The study embeds a fast-running "weapons on targets" allocation model within a "scenario generator" that explores many thousands of plausible, future twenty-year series of military campaigns. The RDM analysis uses these simulation models to stress-test alternative munitions mix strategies against many plausible futures. The analysis then identifies a robust munitions mix strategy, which interestingly depends not only on the desired portfolio of alternative weapons types but also on the rules used to replenish depleted weapons stocks after each campaign. The study also suggests how RDM might best be integrated into current Department of Defense planning processes and some of the challenges that might be involved"--Publisher's description
Member of
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Lempert, Robert J.,
Dewey number
353.6
Illustrations
  • illustrations
  • charts
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
Rand Corporation
Series statement
Research report
Series volume
RR-1112-OSD
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • United States
  • United States
  • United States
  • United States
  • United States
  • Strategy
  • Decision making
Label
Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning, Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio
Instantiates
Publication
Copyright
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-86)
Contents
  • Planning with Predictive Failure
  • Munitions Mix Challenge
  • Organization of This Report
  • CHAPTER TWO:
  • The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning:
  • Comparison of RDM and Traditional Analysis
  • RDM Enables Decision Makers to Discover Robust Strategies Through Iteration
  • XLRM Factors Shape the Design of the Experiment
  • CHAPTER THREE:
  • RDM Munitions Mix Analysis:
  • Preface
  • Initial Analysis of a Broad Range of Munitions Mix Strategies
  • Analysis of Potentially More Robust Munitions Mix Strategies
  • Stress-Testing of Strategies over Many Futures
  • Scenarios That Illuminate the Vulnerabilities of Strategies
  • Performance of Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Moderate Scenario
  • Performance of the Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Extreme Scenario
  • Future Focus on Purchase Rules in Addition to Portfolio Goals
  • CHAPTER FOUR:
  • Conclusions:
  • A Robust Munitions Mix Strategy
  • Figures
  • The Future of RDM in Defense Planning
  • APPENDIXES
  • References
  • Tables
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • Abbreviations
  • CHAPTER ONE:
  • Introduction:
Control code
ocn939550826
Extent
1 online resource (xxii, 86 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9780833093059
Other physical details
color illustrations, color charts
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)939550826
Label
Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : an Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning, Robert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio
Publication
Copyright
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-86)
Contents
  • Planning with Predictive Failure
  • Munitions Mix Challenge
  • Organization of This Report
  • CHAPTER TWO:
  • The RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning:
  • Comparison of RDM and Traditional Analysis
  • RDM Enables Decision Makers to Discover Robust Strategies Through Iteration
  • XLRM Factors Shape the Design of the Experiment
  • CHAPTER THREE:
  • RDM Munitions Mix Analysis:
  • Preface
  • Initial Analysis of a Broad Range of Munitions Mix Strategies
  • Analysis of Potentially More Robust Munitions Mix Strategies
  • Stress-Testing of Strategies over Many Futures
  • Scenarios That Illuminate the Vulnerabilities of Strategies
  • Performance of Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Moderate Scenario
  • Performance of the Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Extreme Scenario
  • Future Focus on Purchase Rules in Addition to Portfolio Goals
  • CHAPTER FOUR:
  • Conclusions:
  • A Robust Munitions Mix Strategy
  • Figures
  • The Future of RDM in Defense Planning
  • APPENDIXES
  • References
  • Tables
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • Abbreviations
  • CHAPTER ONE:
  • Introduction:
Control code
ocn939550826
Extent
1 online resource (xxii, 86 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9780833093059
Other physical details
color illustrations, color charts
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)939550826

Library Locations

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